The New Browser War is Good for Microsoft

uddenly, Mozilla seems mightily concerned about Apple's Safari. Internet Explorer can only benefit from the impending conflict.

Mozilla took a surprisingly proactive approach with Firefox last week, and neither move really had to do with Microsoft.

In an interview with Reuters, Mike Schroepfer, Mozilla's vice president of engineering, claimed that "In many ways it [Firefox 3] is much more stable than anything else out there." The story was published two days after Apple released Safari 3.1. Firefox 3 is currently at Beta 4, with a fifth still expected.

On Friday, Mozilla's CEO, John Lilly, roasted Apple for using its updater to distribute Safari 3.1 to Windows users. Yesterday, Lilly qualified his Apple attack, asserting: "It isn't about competition."

Really?

Mozilla's actions strongly suggest otherwise. Firefox 3's release is still months away but Safari 3.1 is here, now, and it's a surprisingly standards compliant browser. That's a departure for Apple's browser, which had lagged behind Firefox and Internet Explorer. Apple has bragging rights and a finished, new browser; meanwhile, Microsoft and Mozilla are still testing their next-generation browsers. Then there is the matter of the distribution tactic—Apple Software Update offering up Safari 3.1 to Windows users.

As I explained last week, one of Apple's incentives for pushing Safari 3.1--and hard--is that little Google search box in the upper right-hand corner. Mozilla has one of those too. Safari gains could mean less Google revenue for Mozilla.

So Mozilla came out barking at the dog moving in on its territory, with statements asserting Firefox's relevance, and accusing Apple of violating users' trust. I disagree with Lilly. It's all about competition. Safari gains are more likely to come at Firefox's expense than at Internet Explorer's.

My LinuxWatch colleague Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols reviewed Firefox 3 Beta 4 today. He disputes Mozilla's prime-time claims: "Is Firefox 3 ready for production use? Well, my verdict is it's not quite there yet."

On Wednesday, my eWEEK colleague Jim Rapoza praised Apple's browser. For users "who just want a simple and fast Web browser, Safari 3.1 might just be the best choice."

What a lucky break for Microsoft. Firefox has nipped at IE's tail for nearly four years. The biggest IE pain has been Firefox brand gains. Even a 20 percent market share loss to Firefox really wouldn't hurt Internet Explorer. (I doubt the number is that high, as some people have asserted.) The market share numbers are disputable, as most analysts don't accurately track multiple browser usage. Microsoft's problem isn't so much that more people use Firefox but that they now use Internet Explorer and something else.

Microsoft benefits if that something else splits among multiple browsers. More importantly, Firefox could become less of a problem if Mozilla has to focus attention behind, as well as in front.

Dean Hachamovitch, IE general manager, should send Apple CEO Steve Jobs one of those iPhone cakes. "Thanks, Steve! You're the best!" Safari distractions at Mozilla can only benefit browser behemoth Internet Explorer.

The timing is wonderful for Microsoft. IE 8's newfound standards embrace isn't just about Microsoft doing the right thing, as Hachmamovitch's March 3 blog post insinuated. Standards support is just as much a competitive tactic; a way of closing the feature gap on Firefox. While Microsoft tries to make IE 8 into the Firefox-smasher that IE 7 wasn't, Mozilla must engage in a potentially ugly two-front war.

How ugly could it get? The answer will depend much on how many people try Safari and then adopt it. This afternoon, I reviewed browser stats from several of the firms tracking them, including TheCounter.com and OneStat.com. Safari usage/share ranged from about 2.2 percent to 3 percent, and Firefox's was between 13 percent and 16 percent. Net Applications's statistics puts the numbers higher, with more than 17 percent for Firefox and nearly 6 percent for Safari. Whatever the measure, Safari is more likely to take away share from Firefox than Internet Explorer.

Safari has leverage, with Apple Software Update, the iPhone and the iPod Touch, for starters—and that's on Windows. Safari also conceptually benefits from Mac market share gains. I'm not predicting huge share gains for Safari. It's not the amount gained, but from where, that matters and the possible distraction from Mozilla. Share loss equals revenue loss, because of Mozilla's huge dependence on revenue derived from Google search.

The Google search relationship, which expires in November, is important to Mozilla. "Approximately 85 percent of Mozilla's revenue for 2006 was derived from this contract," according to The Mozilla Foundation's 2006 financial statement. No statement has been released for 2007 (that I know of).

So, Mozilla has real financial concerns regarding increased Safari competition. Meanwhile, Microsoft executives can sit back, have a good laugh and continue their prodding IE 8 development.